COVID-19 epidemic expected to lead to record growth of e-commerce market in 2020

In 2020, the e-commerce market in Poland will boast the highest growth figure for approximately a decade, and this will, combined with low forecasts for total retail sales, result in a significant increase in the proportion represented by online sales. Furthermore, the market will grow at a double-figure rate over the next three years, according to the data contained in PMR’s latest report: “Online retail market in Poland 2020. E-commerce market analysis and development forecasts for 2020-2025”.

PMR estimates suggest that the Polish e-commerce market was worth more than PLN 61 billion in 2019. It accounted for almost 11% of the entire retail trade market, and in 2025 the proportion will reach almost 20%. This rapid increase in the share will be caused by the COVID-19 epidemic.

As a result of the pandemic, in 2020, the e-commerce market in Poland will exhibit the most substantial increase for several years (almost 26% year on year). E-commerce has gained considerably from the pandemic and the restrictions introduced to limit its development. Shops and trading platforms have recorded significant sales growth, and many chains of bricks-and-mortar stores have decided to launch their own e-shops.

COVID-19 will significantly accelerate the development of the online food market

The pandemic has caused online sales to grow rapidly, even in subgroups, including food, which previously enjoyed limited popularity among consumers.

Along with customer attitudes, another significant reason for this state of affairs was the lack of opportunity to buy fresh, chilled or frozen products outside the largest conurbations and in the nearest towns.

The COVID-19 epidemic had significantly accelerated the development of this market subgroup by the end of February: even before the first cases of coronavirus infection had appeared in Poland, the largest food e-shops had observed a significant increase in sales – in terms of both basket value and numbers of orders.

According to PMR data, in 2020 this market area will grow by more than 40% year on year, increasing the proportion of the food market represented by e-commerce to 0.7%. In addition, the coronavirus is expected to prove to be a positive factor which will support the development of online sales of food products in the long term also. By the end of the forecast period covered by PMR (2021-2025), the market will exhibit two-figure year-on-year growth.

AUTHOR
Karolina Szałas
Analyst

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